At BettingPros, we've been tracking the accuracy of NFL sports betting since 2018. You can find more information about our methodology here. As soon as experts have submitted their selection before each game, our website will display their selection. We use this to calculate Win% and Units Gained.
We believe that Win% tells us the most for picks made against the spread and over / under, as these lines are often close to the straight line. In contrast, Units Won tells us the most about money line betting as these lines have a significant difference in value.
Here are the most accurate experts from 2020.
Check out the full 2020 NFL Accuracy Ranking >>
Walter Cherepinsky moved from 19th place in 2019 to 1st place in 2020 with the highest profit share of one point. He also took first place among the experts on won units. If you'd like to read more from him, visit his WalterFootball website.
FantasyTeamAdvices KJ ranked 2nd against Propagation Accuracy after ranking 37th last year. Interestingly, he improved his profit% by only two percentage points. Likewise, Greg Smith of TwoQB's No. 5 even had a worse profit than last year (56%), but he finished the race higher than 2019 (No. 26).
So what happened Well, we saw a significant regression on Win% for experts last season. Last year's # 1 finisher Chet Gresham had a 66% gain. That's a nine point drop in first place from this year to last year. None of our top 10 finishers would have made it to the top 10 in last year's ranking.
However, we cannot blame our experts. The 2020 season was marked by uncertainty – numerous games were postponed while teams had to make late adjustments due to COVID-19. Let's hope next year is a little less chaotic!
Impressive. FantasyData's Jody Smith not only finished first in the overall game bets, but also with a six point lead! Smith didn't take part in last year's competition, but last year's winner Matt MacCoy won this year with a 60% gain. Smith now owns the best NFL overall win% game in BettingPros history.
No one else passed the 60% mark, but DGSN's No. 2 Jared Beams and HTFF's No. 3 Bart Wheeler came closest. Both finished with more units won than Smith. Unlike Smith, both experts submitted tips for last year's competition. Beams moved up from 37th place after improving his profit by nine points, while Wheeler moved up from 4th place after improving his profit by two points.
What was impressive was that Justin Dodds # 9, despite his lower win%, led all experts in units won (39.21) and Jared Beams # 2 ended up right behind him.
Three bettors finished as the top 10 experts against both the spread and over / under: Jody Smith, Jared Smola and Greg Smith. This is an incredibly impressive feat and you should be following these three experts closely over the next season.
FantasyTeamAdvice's KJ perfectly shows why Win% is less important than units won in moneyline bets. Despite only hitting a third of the time, you've won a whopping 39.67 units on every bet from KJ, the most far and wide this season. Sure, that number might not be as impressive as the number that Win My Fantasy League's Raju Byfield posted last season (70.63), but it's an accomplishment nonetheless. Last season, KJ finished fifth with 39% win% and 37.86 units won.
Only one other expert produced more than 30 won units: Tal Malachovsky from The Fantasy Scout. His impressive units won can be attributed to both the accuracy and the total number of games he selected as he had more wins than KJ. In 2019, Malachovsky finished No. 16 with -0.79 units won.
Despite not leading any category, Greg Smith was the only expert to make it into the top 10 of each category. In total, he scored 33.17 units won.
Important Nonsense's Vishaal Gupta led all the experts in Win%. His picks should be good to follow for those in survivor pools over the next year, though you may not win a ton of units betting on safe lines.
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